FA DE are starting to dwindle

[Stinger226]

Didnt know where to put this, so just went new.

 

Orakapo has been tagged as well as Hardy earlier.

 

That leaves Bennett

Houston

Johnson

as top level DEs that are left.

 

I suspect they all get greater offers than we will suspect.

 

SO we should target a FA of lesser valve or resign Wootten and grab one in the draft.

 

We have to resign a couple of our own FAs and then fill in with some cheaper FAs because the draft will only bring us probably one quality recruit to start.

[scs787]

Still think we have the money for Bennett... I doubt he gets paid like a top 5 DE. Looking at the top 5 paid DEs, Chris Long is 5th on that list, in his first year his cap hit was 8.5. Long was a year younger and at least sack wise (which isn't everything) was the more productive player.

 

I think with the cap inflation the Bears can get him for around that same figure, and perhaps a little less.

[Stinger226]

Still think we have the money for Bennett... I doubt he gets paid like a top 5 DE. Looking at the top 5 paid DEs, Chris Long is 5th on that list, in his first year his cap hit was 8.5. Long was a year younger and at least sack wise (which isn't everything) was the more productive player.

 

I think with the cap inflation the Bears can get him for around that same figure, and perhaps a little less.

I looked at all the DEs in the league and I think with his ability he will be anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5. Where the problem comes in is if one teams thinks he is worth the top end of that range, which I think will price him out of our budget.

[scs787]

I looked at all the DEs in the league and I think with his ability he will be anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5. Where the problem comes in is if one teams thinks he is worth the top end of that range, which I think will price him out of our budget.

 

 

I'd give him 8.5 no questions asked honestly. Like I've said in the past throw Bennett his money make a couple moves like what they did with Marty and Bushrod where the 2 combined got around 5M in cap space. That's only 13.5 and I think the Bears will have 20M+ in cap space. I think 7M is plenty to bring in some quality depth.

 

That's 3 FA starters, give me 3 starting rookies, throw in Briggs, Paea, Jennings, Bostic, and SMC/Williams(who prob gets the vet min again) and there's your starting 11.

[bradjock]

Still think we have the money for Bennett... I doubt he gets paid like a top 5 DE. Looking at the top 5 paid DEs, Chris Long is 5th on that list, in his first year his cap hit was 8.5. Long was a year younger and at least sack wise (which isn't everything) was the more productive player.

 

I think with the cap inflation the Bears can get him for around that same figure, and perhaps a little less.

 

Possibly. Although I'm wondering if this will be a year where teams go crazy in free agent spending. The Steelers & Browns used the transition tag on Jason Worilds guaranteeing him 9.7 million and Alex Mack for 10 million. Wow. WTF??? I don't understand why either team would spend that for a part time player and a center.

 

Those both could be a fluke or it could be an indicator of things to come. And the Bears need to be damn careful about overspending. Some team might go crazy on paying for Bennett. It happens. Which might make us bring back Peppers, one way or another. I truly believe that right now there is a 50/50 chance Peppers is back next season.

[scs787]

Worilds is a really good player IMO, he had 7 sacks in the 2nd half of the season, your point remains though.

 

The more I think about it I think the Bears cap situation is getting a little over blown though. Like Emery said they're rolling in money(or something to that extent).

 

the ~20M number I brought up in the previous post is actually "short changing them".

 

Biggs said they have roughly 8.4M right now.

 

8.4M

+9.8M (Peppers)

+2.45M (Bennett) ((Could potentially see them extending him to lessen his cap))

+1.85M (Bush)

+1M (Podlesh)

+1.1M (Weems)

 

= 24.6M in cap space....And that's BEFORE potentially dipping into Cutler/Jennings/Slaussons money, AND the possibility exists that the Bears extend BMarsh to gain another mill or 2.

 

Bears very well could spend close to 30M this year, and with the O pretty much intact that all could go towards the D.

 

Even if Bennetts market drives him up to the 10M I think I'd do it.

[Stinger226]

Worilds is a really good player IMO, he had 7 sacks in the 2nd half of the season, your point remains though.

 

The more I think about it I think the Bears cap situation is getting a little over blown though. Like Emery said they're rolling in money(or something to that extent).

 

the ~20M number I brought up in the previous post is actually "short changing them".

 

Biggs said they have roughly 8.4M right now.

 

8.4M

+9.8M (Peppers)

+2.45M (Bennett) ((Could potentially see them extending him to lessen his cap))

+1.85M (Bush)

+1M (Podlesh)

+1.1M (Weems)

 

= 24.6M in cap space....And that's BEFORE potentially dipping into Cutler/Jennings/Slaussons money, AND the possibility exists that the Bears extend BMarsh to gain another mill or 2.

 

Bears very well could spend close to 30M this year, and with the O pretty much intact that all could go towards the D.

 

Even if Bennetts market drives him up to the 10M I think I'd do it.

No way they pay Bennett 10 mil to come here. Peppers was effective in 3 and a half games and had the same number of sacks. If his price is driven up, we are out. I hope we can get him done at a contract of 3 years 25 mil with 5 going against the cap this year. We absolutely need a good DE coming out of the FAgency period. We have nothing at DE when we release Peppers. If we designate him for the June 1 release it will 14 mil in available cap space.

[scs787]

No way they pay Bennett 10 mil to come here. Peppers was effective in 3 and a half games and had the same number of sacks. If his price is driven up, we are out. I hope we can get him done at a contract of 3 years 25 mil with 5 going against the cap this year. We absolutely need a good DE coming out of the FAgency period. We have nothing at DE when we release Peppers. If we designate him for the June 1 release it will 14 mil in available cap space.

 

 

Bennett also only played 60% of the snaps on Seattle's crowded DL. Plus he spent a lot of time playing inside as well

 

According to Rotowire, Peppers played 724 snaps while Bennett only played 569. Pep had 7.5 sacks, that's a sack every 96.5 snaps. Bennett had 8.5 sacks, that's a sack every 66.9 snaps....And again Bennett spent a a good deal of time playing inside....Comparing the 2 is a little silly and doesn't tell the whole story.

 

10M wouldn't be a mistake IMO.

[Stinger226]

Bennett also only played 60% of the snaps on Seattle's crowded DL. Plus he spent a lot of time playing inside as well

 

According to Rotowire, Peppers played 724 snaps while Bennett only played 569. Pep had 7.5 sacks, that's a sack every 96.5 snaps. Bennett had 8.5 sacks, that's a sack every 66.9 snaps....And again Bennett spent a a good deal of time playing inside....Comparing the 2 is a little silly and doesn't tell the whole story.

 

10M wouldn't be a mistake IMO.

The question is when he gets mucho snaps does that make him a stud or does he just look good. He had a hell of a defense he played with, he wasnt the OLs focus. Here he would be the man.The most he has had in a full season is 9, to me that doesnt seem worth the contract you suggested in the other post. A good player, for sure, a star, I dont seem getting a whole lot better. I want him to come here but dont think Emery will be willing to pay that much for him.

[scs787]

Sack numbers weren't there the year before but he certainly was disruptive. PFF (yes, I'm going there) had him ranked as the 7th best DE in 2012, and 5th best in 2013. He's a disruptive mofo.

 

With the rise of the cap 8-10M isn't huge money. Even the 12 and 14M I put out there isn't huge when you consider the cap is expected to go up another 7M next year and another 10M the following year.

[Stinger226]

Sack numbers weren't there the year before but he certainly was disruptive. PFF (yes, I'm going there) had him ranked as the 7th best DE in 2012, and 5th best in 2013. He's a disruptive mofo.

 

With the rise of the cap 8-10M isn't huge money. Even the 12 and 14M I put out there isn't huge when you consider the cap is expected to go up another 7M next year and another 10M the following year.

I hope your right, I think he would be the BAP for FA defensive end, would love him to be here. Just not seeing Phil on board with that much money.

[jason]

Sack numbers weren't there the year before but he certainly was disruptive. PFF (yes, I'm going there) had him ranked as the 7th best DE in 2012, and 5th best in 2013. He's a disruptive mofo.

 

With the rise of the cap 8-10M isn't huge money. Even the 12 and 14M I put out there isn't huge when you consider the cap is expected to go up another 7M next year and another 10M the following year.

 

But the PFF numbers go on a percentage based system, do they not?

 

The potential flaw there is that with more snaps, there is more fatigue. It could be possible he's better suited for a rotational Mark Anderson type role, where he excels with fresh legs. And if given the chance to play full time DE, his explosion would diminish (i.e. Devin Hester when WR and returner).

[scs787]

But the PFF numbers go on a percentage based system, do they not?

 

The potential flaw there is that with more snaps, there is more fatigue. It could be possible he's better suited for a rotational Mark Anderson type role, where he excels with fresh legs. And if given the chance to play full time DE, his explosion would diminish (i.e. Devin Hester when WR and returner).

 

Well he was a full time player in 2012 and still ranked in the top 10.

[Stinger226]

Well he was a full time player in 2012 and still ranked in the top 10.

I like him but in that year he had 9 sacks. I agree there is more to it, but look at the top DEs they are mainly measured by sacks. PFF is only what the elite fans judge by.

[scs787]

I like him but in that year he had 9 sacks. I agree there is more to it, but look at the top DEs they are mainly measured by sacks. PFF is only what the elite fans judge by.

 

All PFF is look at the important things that don't show in the stat sheet.

 

I know their pressures stat has been questioned here but oh well....Bennett ranked 7th in pass rush percentage, Robert Mathais who led the league in sacks didn't make the top 10. Greg Hardy ranked 10th.

 

 

[Stinger226]

All PFF is look at the important things that don't show in the stat sheet.

 

I know their pressures stat has been questioned here but oh well....Bennett ranked 7th in pass rush percentage, Robert Mathais who led the league in sacks didn't make the top 10. Greg Hardy ranked 10th.

Think of it this way, Shea lead our team is disruptions . The only thing that stat means is he wasnt any good.

[scs787]

Think of it this way, Shea lead our team is disruptions . The only thing that stat means is he wasnt any good.

 

Uhh no, it means our DL wasnt any good..

 

1 Jerry Hughes BUF 305 59 15.4

2 Robert Quinn SL 477 91 15.3

3 Aldon Smith SF 289 55 15.1

3 Elvis Dumervil BLT 319 61 15.1

3 Justin Houston KC 332 59 14.1

6 Cameron Wake MIA 397 71 14.0

7 Michael Bennett SEA 379 65 13.5

8 Von Miller DEN 234 38 12.8

9 Tamba Hali KC 500 77 12.2

10 Greg Hardy CAR 536 82 12.1

 

are you telling me those guys aren't any good?

 

Before you say anything about Jerry Hughes being on top of the list dude had 10 sacks as a backup.

[jason]

Think of it this way, Shea lead our team is disruptions . The only thing that stat means is he wasnt any good.

 

LMAO!! If SMC is leading the team, the stat has to be flawed somewhere.

[Stinger226]

Uhh no, it means our DL wasnt any good..

 

1 Jerry Hughes BUF 305 59 15.4

2 Robert Quinn SL 477 91 15.3

3 Aldon Smith SF 289 55 15.1

3 Elvis Dumervil BLT 319 61 15.1

3 Justin Houston KC 332 59 14.1

6 Cameron Wake MIA 397 71 14.0

7 Michael Bennett SEA 379 65 13.5

8 Von Miller DEN 234 38 12.8

9 Tamba Hali KC 500 77 12.2

10 Greg Hardy CAR 536 82 12.1

 

are you telling me those guys aren't any good?

No not saying that, the point Im trying to make is when people talk about the best DEs in the league they start with sacks. I know all the numbers add up to different assestments and they matter. I dont view Jerry Hughes as an elite DE because his assessments look good.PFF is a good tool to use to judge people but it isnt the bible in football information.

[scs787]

No not saying that, the point Im trying to make is when people talk about the best DEs in the league they start with sacks. I know all the numbers add up to different assestments and they matter. I dont view Jerry Hughes as an elite DE because his assessments look good.PFF is a good tool to use to judge people but it isnt the bible in football information.

 

Jerry Hughes had a a really good year. If you wanna look at sacks instead of pressures, Hughes had 10 sacks in 578 snaps, whereas Greg Hardy who you might call elite because his 15 sacks were 3rd in the league, played 806 snaps. Had they played the same amount of snaps Hughes could be right up there with him.

 

Who do you think lead the team in pressures?

 

In a recent Biggs article he said Peppers only had 15.

[Stinger226]

Jerry Hughes had a a really good year. If you wanna look at sacks instead of pressures, Hughes had 10 sacks in 578 snaps, whereas Greg Hardy who you might call elite because his 15 sacks were 3rd in the league, played 806 snaps. Had they played the same amount of snaps Hughes could be right up there with him.

 

Who do you think lead the team in pressures?

 

In a recent Biggs article he said Peppers only had 15.

I dont think Hughes is the best DE because his name was first is your stat category, that shows exactly what Im saying about all the stats that pop up. He didnt thou, so it is all speculation.

[scs787]

I dont think Hughes is the best DE because his name was first is your stat category, that shows exactly what Im saying about all the stats that pop up. He didnt thou, so it is all speculation.

 

The stat is all relative to percentages. Let me try to simplify this a bit.

 

Hardy played 806 snaps that's 50 snaps a game. Hughes played 228 less snaps, so it's kinda like Hardy played in 4 and half more games right? Well looking at Hughes game log there was a 4 game span where he had 5 sacks. If he duplicates that then BOOM they have the same amount of sacks. And I'm just looking at sacks here because that's what you're saying makes you elite.

 

It should be pretty easy to comprehend.

 

I know you said you're a Sox fan, so you apparently follow a little baseball. Are you familiar with sabermetrics? What PFF does is pretty much the sabermetrics of the NFL.

 

If you don't know what sabermetrics is, have you seen the movie Moneyball? That's basically what that movie is about.

[Stinger226]

The stat is all relative to percentages. Let me try to simplify this a bit.

 

Hardy played 806 snaps that's 50 snaps a game. Hughes played 228 less snaps, so it's kinda like Hardy played in 4 and half more games right? Well looking at Hughes game log there was a 4 game span where he had 5 sacks. If he duplicates that then BOOM they have the same amount of sacks. And I'm just looking at sacks here because that's what you're saying makes you elite.

 

It should be pretty easy to comprehend.

 

I know you said you're a Sox fan, so you apparently follow a little baseball. Are you familiar with sabermetrics? What PFF does is pretty much the sabermetrics of the NFL.

 

If you don't know what sabermetrics is, have you seen the movie Moneyball? That's basically what that movie is about.

Of course I do, and understand the valve, but what would PFF have said of Anderson/DE his rookie year here? He had one good year, where is he now?

I think a person needs to look at many things to judge players, Hughes might have did better with more snaps, but he didnt play them and we can only assume the results.He might have did nothing with them, we simply cant make things exist when the reality is actually different.

 

As far as the WS, only went to one game last year, plan on several this year with a injection of something new.

[scs787]

Of course I do, and understand the valve, but what would PFF have said of Anderson/DE his rookie year here? He had one good year, where is he now?

I think a person needs to look at many things to judge players, Hughes might have did better with more snaps, but he didnt play them and we can only assume the results.He might have did nothing with them, we simply cant make things exist when the reality is actually different.

 

As far as the WS, only went to one game last year, plan on several this year with a injection of something new.

 

I absolutely agree with the bold statement, and that's exactly what I'm doing.....You apparently don't though since all you're looking at is sack numbers, so where's you're logic?

 

 

 

 

[Lucky Luciano]

The stat is all relative to percentages. Let me try to simplify this a bit.

 

Hardy played 806 snaps that's 50 snaps a game. Hughes played 228 less snaps, so it's kinda like Hardy played in 4 and half more games right? Well looking at Hughes game log there was a 4 game span where he had 5 sacks. If he duplicates that then BOOM they have the same amount of sacks. And I'm just looking at sacks here because that's what you're saying makes you elite.

 

It should be pretty easy to comprehend.

 

I know you said you're a Sox fan, so you apparently follow a little baseball. Are you familiar with sabermetrics? What PFF does is pretty much the sabermetrics of the NFL.

 

If you don't know what sabermetrics is, have you seen the movie Moneyball? That's basically what that movie is about.

 

i'm sure everyone knows this but i will throw it out here anyway....

 

sacks per season (stats) are useful to a degree but there is MUCH more involved that has to be taken into consideration if you don't want to get whip-sawed in free agency.

 

1. scheme and coaching - how aggressive and creative is their coaching staff? do they run a strict 4-3? are they a 3-4? do they mix up a 3-4 into their scheme? are they an attack defense? are they a read and react defense? blitzing capabilities from behind the DL? do they mix up their look at the LOS. do they stunt? rotation? how good are their DB's (are they running zone or man)?

 

2. down and distance - what is the percentage of sacks in multiple situations? passing downs, are they a mixture of 1st through 3rd down? are they mostly 3rd and long? very long?

 

3. quality of players playing along side of him - what is the other DE doing pressure wise? are the tackles putting pressure up the middle? who, if anyone, is getting double teamed?

 

4. quality of competition in division and other teams played - if their division is junk compared to other competition throughout the NFL what is the quality of the guards and tackles he is playing half a season against? do most of the sacks come in one game against X opponent? in slop time or blow outs?

 

5. how is he going to fit into what you are doing defensively? will he compliment the other players on your team or will he struggle when other players can't compare to what he played with before free agency?